Page 10 - ITAtube Journal 1 2019

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Market information
Fig.3: Correlation of oil and gas rigs versus oil price Source: based on Baker Huges and Nasdaq
Fig.4: Pipeline project Keystone XL Source: CTV News
pipe supplies utilized for combus- tion engines. As yet, alternative drive systems represent a minor percentage of vehicles on the road, but ongoing developments need to be closely watched.
After an average growth in pro- duction figures of 4% year-on- year until 2017, 2018 showed the first sign of a slight decline in the market (Fig.5), although earlier statistics were still indicat- ing some growth for 2018. 2019 is already being seen as a year of negative growth (-2%). Only after 2019 do the forecasts indicate the resumption of a slight upward trend of about 2% in 2020 and 2021.
Looking at regional sales figures (Fig.6), it can be seen that the development from 2017 to 2018 (extrapolated) is nonuniform. Countries like Russia (+15%), Brazil (+13%) and India (+7%) show continued growth, but Japan offsets these growth trends and shows a decline in car sales of 11%. The largest world car markets, China, USA and Europe are consolidating at almost “zero” growth.
If the IEA and Citigroup predic- tions had been proven correct, the world would have been faced with an oversupply situation. As it is, political intervention by the US government, i.e. the sanctions imposed on Iran and Venezuela’s oil exports, created an artificial mood of supply shortages, which in turn prompted the current oil price rally.
With this obvious sign that oil prices are currently heavily dependant on political interven- tion, it has become very difficult to give reliable forecasts for the consumption of steel tubes for this important market segment.
The second oil and gas market is represented by gas pipelines. The line pipe market is a project-based business with long planning periods and strong political deter- mining factors. Several such pro- jects are currently being planned in Europe, the US and Asia.
In Europe, gas pipelines are mainly built to carry gas from gas and oil fields in Russia and in the North Sea. On the North American continent, the new Keystone XL pipeline is projected to transport
oil from Canada to the petrochem- ical centres in the US. In Asia, pipelines are needed to serve the new petrochemical complexes in Malaysia and Indonesia. All these projects are intensively discussed on political and environmental platforms.
The European project “Nord Stream” is a good example, since US president Trump and the Polish government are using all their influence to ban this project. The US administration is even trying to threaten the international companies involved with trade sanctions. On the other hand, the US pipeline project Keystone XL (Fig.4) is supported by Mr. Trump but environmental activists are fiercely opposed to it.
Again, the political issues at play make it more and more difficult to predict pipeline project develop- ments in the oil and gas business.
The second important market, with a market share of 15%, is cars.
This market is characterized by stability and high demand. The present trend to electro-mobility may have a negative impact on
ITAtube Journal No1/February 2019