Page 14 - ITAtube Journal 3 2025

Market information
In contrast, Turkey (~USD 540/ton) and
India (~USD 510/ton) trade at significantly
lower HRC levels (Figure 13).
Narrow margins in welded tube pro-
duction, including occasional negative
margins, remain a structural challenge.
Specialty grades for OCTG are increasingly
expensive and difficult to source.
Figure 13: Hot-Rolled Coil Steel prices for
selected countries until November 2025
Source: Kallanish.com
Figure 14: Oil price WTI development 1 year up to December 2025 (US$/Bbl.)
Source: US Energy Information Administration
The oil and gas sector accounts for roughly
51% of global tube and pipe demand.
OCTG consumption correlates strongly
with oil prices (Figure 14). OPEC+ strug-
gled to maintain oil prices above USD 90/
Bbl despite voluntary cuts of 2 million Bbl/
day, extended into March 2025. The group
has since reversed its strategy, gradually
increasing output and deciding to fully
revoke the 2.2 million Bbl/day cuts as of
November 2025, citing global economic
stabilization and potential concerns about
rising US production.
US oil output rose from 12.0 million Bbl/
day in August 2022 to 13.4 million Bbl/
day in July 2025 (+11.2%). The US Energy
Information Administration (EIA) now
forecasts a record 13.61 million Bbl/day
for 2025 and 13.53 million Bbl/day for
2026. US oil exports reached a record 5.5
million Bbl/day, equal to 41.6% of global
crude production. According to Oilprice.
com, US rig count for oil declined from 480
in January to 412 in December 2025 (-14%),
this despite enlarged output but caused
by improved rig productivity. Number of
gas rigs in the same period increased from
98 to 129, mainly driven by shale gas. US
policy continues to prioritize fossil fuels
and nuclear energy, with reduced focus on
wind and solar.
At the same time, expected global oil
demand for 2025 is rising by 100,000 to
20.6 million bpd, while the EIA expects
stagnation for 2026. The EIA expects a
global surplus of up to 4.09 million Bbl/day
next year.
Prices are projected to remain low in 2025
at average USD 65.32/Bbl (WTI) and USD
68.91/Bbl (Brent). Demand for tubular
products will remain strong as energy
security concerns persist.
Corrosion and wear continue to chal-
lenge OCTG performance, particularly in
H₂S/CO₂-rich environments. As a result,
demand is rising for tubular products
made from corrosion-resistant alloys (CRA)
and clad materials, offering manufacturers
opportunities for differentiation.
14 ITAtube Journal December 2025