Page 14 - ITAtube Journal 2 2025

Market information
Figure 12: Oil price WTI development 1 year up to July 2025 (US$/Bbl.)
Source: US Energy Information Administration
its production cuts of 2.2 million Bbl./
day from November 2025 onwards.They
have reasoned this strategic change with
a stabilising global economic situation.
Another possible motivation is to avoid
further growth in US oil exploration. In
addition, rumours that the oil embargo
against Venezuela may be partially lifted
have further driven down the oil price. The
conflict between Israel and Iran, and the
threat of disruption to transport via the
Strait of Hormuz, has temporarily driven
the oil price up to 74 USD/Bbl. However,
since the conflict has calmed down, the oil
price has fallen again to under 66 USD/Bbl.
Predicting the future development of the
oil price is becoming increasingly difficult.
The oil price volatility anyhow ticks higher
with more geopolitical risks simmering.
In order to soften inflation and sacrifice
crude oil demand, the USA increased its
crude oil production almost linearly from
12 million Bbl./day in August 2022. Bbl./
day in August 2022 to 13.4 million Bbl./
day in July 2025 (an increase of 11.2%).
The number of drilling rigs for crude oil
anyhow is decreasing, which means a
major improvement in the rig productivity
(Figures 13 and 14).
The number of US drilling rigs increased to
around 800 by December 2022 (see Figure
14). Due to improved productivity and
declining oil prices, this number fell to 544
by July 2025. Of these, 422 were dedicated
to oil extraction and 117 to gas extraction.
Only rigs dedicated to gas extraction were
added, mainly applying shale gas tech-
nology. During this period, US oil exports
reached a remarkable new all-time high of
around 5.5 million Bbl./day, representing
approximately 41.6% of the total global
crude oil production.
In the short term, efforts to reduce
dependence on fossil energy sources
can hardly be successful and can only
contribute in the medium term. For our
pipe industry, however, this means that,
unless the geopolitical situation gets out of
control, crude oil prices can be expected
to be around 65–75 USD/Bbl. in 2025.
Figure 14: US Total Rig Count 5 years up to July 2025
The need to secure the world’s energy
Source: OilPrice.com
supply will maintain high demand for
14 ITAtube Journal August 2025
Figure 13: US Crude Oil Production as per July 2025
Source: OilPrice.com